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Monday, November 23, 2015

AHL's best player has no business in NHL

Leafs prospect William Nylander is dominating the AHL despite being young enough to pass for a high school senior.

There are compelling reasons to call him up to the NHL.

  • The Leafs are bad and have scored the 6th fewest goals in the league.
  • Nylander leads the AHL in scoring with 23 points in 17 games.
  • It's his No. 1 goal and he doesn't seem to have trouble with goals.



But calling up Nylander isn't best for the Leafs long-term.

Why?

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Leafs Trade Kessel in Disappointing Deal

The Maple Leafs kicked off their rebuild by trading star winger Phil Kessel to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a package of prospects and picks, finally ending the contentious Phil Kessel era in Toronto.

In exchange for Kessel, who goes to Pittsburgh along with Tyler Biggs, Tim Erixon, and a 2016 2nd round pick, the Leafs received Kasperi Kapanen (2014 1st round pick), Scott Harrington (2011 2nd round pick), veteran Nick Spaling, and a 2016 1st round pick and 3rd round pick. The Leafs also agreed to pick up 15% of Kessel's salary, totalling $1.2 million a season.

Monday, May 25, 2015

Phil Kessel's Trade Value

One of the biggest decisions the Maple Leafs must make this off-season is deciding what to do with Phil Kessel.

Although Kessel is a dynamic offensive player, the Leafs have failed to surround him with talent and the team has wasted Kessel's prime years. There are still good years left for Kessel, but with the Leafs embarking on a full-scale rebuild it's likely those years will go to waste in Toronto. And by the time the Leafs start to rise from the bottom of the league, Kessel will be hitting the decline phase of his career. The wisest decision, therefore, would be to deal him this summer.

But what type of return can the Leafs get for Kessel. Luckily for us, a superstar winger with a massive contract was traded within the past few years and can give us a good idea of what Kessel might fetch in a trade. I'm referring, of course, to Rick Nash.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Maple Leafs Land Mike Babcock

The Leafs landed the most impactful free agent of the off-season and it isn't even July 1.

On Wednesday, the Leafs signed Mike Babcock to an 8-year, $50 million deal to become the 30th head coach in franchise history.

The Leafs apparently swooped in at the last moment of negotiations and signed Babcock after it looked almost certain as if the Buffalo Sabres would sign the highly sought after coach. There are tears in Buffalo, for sure.

Saturday, February 14, 2015

How Long Will It Take the Leafs to Rebuild?


With the Leafs set to embark on a full-scale rebuild, the most pressing question among Toronto fans is simple: How long until the Leafs can contend.

Re-building is not for the faint of heart. It takes plenty of years of being utterly terrible before the first signs of tangible progress, and sometimes plenty more after that before reaching the ultimate prize (just ask the St. Louis Blues).

To get a better understanding of just how long a rebuild might take in Toronto I looked at three of the past four Stanley Cup winners to see how they did it. I excluded the Boston Bruins because they didn't really rebuild, they succeeded in pulling off the magical re-tool on the fly, in large part because they made the greatest free agent singing ever (Zdeno Chara) and lucked into two franchise goalies (in one case the luck was having a team as stupid as the Leafs to trade with). Basically, the Bruins model is not easily replicable.

For the Kings, Blackhawks, and Penguins, I defined the start of the rebuild as the first season in which they flamed out after having been in the playoffs or at least in playoff contention for a number of years. If you're in the playoffs or at least close enough to have a shot late in the season (as the Kings were from 2003-2005) you aren't rebuilding. It's not until a team drops dramatically in the standings that they typically commit to a full rebuild.

So how did they do it?

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Can a Team Win with Kessel and Phaneuf?


With the Leafs mired in another death spiral, the core is coming under increased scrutiny. The major question in Toronto is whether you can win with Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf.

It's certainly possible. And you have to look no further than the team who has won two of the last five Stanley Cups.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Rejoice! Leafs Fire Randy Carlyle


Dave Nonis forgot one last Christmas present under the tree for Leafs fans, and delivered it on Tuesday, firing head coach Randy Carlyle.

The move comes half a season and one contract extension too late, but the news of Carlyle's dismissal is positive nonetheless.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Tyler Seguin No Longer Haunts Leafs


"Does it hurt to watch Tyler Seguin?"

That's a common question many Leafs fans get, especially as Seguin launches an offensive assault on the league.

You may have heard this before, but the Maple Leafs traded the draft pick that eventually became Seguin. The Phil Kessel trade is rarely discussed so don't feel bad if you didn't know this fact. Oh, what's that? You've heard that before. Of course, because by law the Kessel-Seguin swap needs to be brought up EVERY SINGLE DAY. For eternity.

But unlike other painful trades of the past that continually hurt Leafs Nation's collective psyche (like the Tom Kurvers-pick-that-became-Scott Niedermayer deal that everyone was reminded of as Cody Franson crept up on a Kurvers points streak record), the Seguin trade doesn't hurt. And I'm not just saying that because the Leafs have killed off any feelings I still might have inside of me.

Monday, November 10, 2014

What to do with Cody Franson

From the press box to the top defensive pairing, Cody Franson has come a long way in his four seasons as a Maple Leaf. Now in the final year of his contract the Leafs have to decide whether he's a key piece for their future or whether he's expendable.

For a while it looked like Franson was merely a bottom-pairing defenceman with a good shot capable of racking up points on the power play. Now Franson has become the Leafs best possession defenceman while playing alongside Dion Phaneuf on the top pair. When Franson takes the ice the Leafs gain a shot advantage they haven't enjoyed in years; the team controls 50.1% of all shot attempts with Franson, and fall back to their customary shelled selves when he takes a breather.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

2014-15 Maple Leafs Season Preview


The 2013-14 NHL season gets underway on Oct. 8 with the Leafs and Canadiens renewing rivalries, and what better way to get set than a season preview giving you the five reasons to be optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic about the Leafs' chances?

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

2014-2015 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers

Last year might have been my worst season at predicting sleepers in the history of this blog. But I somehow still ended up winning my fantasy league, so that should give you some reason to trust my predictions this season.

If you want to do a little more digging yourself you should check out the official 5MFF fantasy hockey strategy guide as well as a handy primer to using advanced stats to crush your opponents. If you want to blindly trust my analysis jump ahead, I appreciate your faith.

As always sleepers are defined here as any player whose production this season should exceed the output of their draft position. So while this list may not have many obscure players, they should all be quality value picks.

Saturday, September 6, 2014

2014 Fantasy Hockey Team Names

Bad News Berezins
As you get older many more and more things begin to take increasing importance in your life: family, work, house, dogs (I will begrudgingly list cats as well), etc. It's perfectly understandable if you have less time to devote to fantasy hockey, so I get it if life gets in the way of researching sleepers or developing a killer draft strategy or learning how advanced stats can help win your league. But no matter how little you pay attention to fantasy hockey, the one non-negotiable area of your life you absolutely cannot neglect is your team name.

Luckily, I'm here to help. Or, more accurately, my friend Mike is here to help. Below is a list of the best of his 2014 creations. I have added a few that were floating around the internet, but these are probably 95% Mike's creations.

So although your kids may take the No. 1 spot in life's priorities these days, after naming little Katniss or baby Apollo, there's not much more important than naming your fantasy hockey team.

If nothing on this list suits your fancy check out all the fantasy hockey team names from 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010. As always, feel free to add your own creations or anything else you find in the comments below.

Saturday, August 2, 2014

Is Montreal in Danger of Losing P.K. Subban?


The Montreal Canadiens are playing a dangerous game with star defenceman P.K. Subban, and it might cost them.

Unbelievably, the two sides went to arbitration after a deal could not be worked out. Subban has asked for $8.5 million while the Canadiens have countered with $5.25 million. It is possible a long-term deal is worked out before the arbitrator hands down a decision, but if not the two sides with be bound to the one-year deal awarded by the arbitrator. Afterwards, the Habs will be unable to sign Subban to a new contract until January, 2015. Subban is eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2016.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Does David Booth Still Have Top-6 Potential?


Once again it looks like the Vancouver Canucks' trash is the Toronto Maple Leafs' treasure. Last year the Leafs snagged Mason Raymond on a bargain deal and this year Dave Nonis went to his old team to pluck the freshly bought-out David Booth on a one-year deal worth $1.1 million.

Raymond was highly motivated in his stint in Toronto after being tossed aside by the Canucks, producing 45 points for a measly $1 million. Raymond's 19 goals as a Leaf was his best output since scoring 25 in 2009-10. The hope with Booth is that he can reclaim some of the form that saw him net 31 goals with the Panthers way back in 2008-09.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Kyle Dubas Hiring a Ray of Hope for Toronto

The Boston Red Sox ended an 86-year World Series drought after hiring a 28-year-old executive named Theo Epstein, and after the Maple Leafs hired 28-year-old Kyle Dubas as assistant GM on Tuesday there is hope a similar miracle might work in Toronto.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Best and Worst Contracts of Free Agency Day 1


By Tuesday night, GMs had spent nearly $500 million on UFAs. As always, a ton of that money was spent recklessly and was used to sign future buyouts. Amidst the chaos there were some reasonable deals and some outright steals.

Here's a recap of some of the worst and best contracts handed out on the first day of free agency.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Leafs Off-Season Game Plan: Goalies


The Leafs finished last season ninth in team save percentage, meaning after years of wandering in the wilderness they have finally solved their goaltending problem. But nothing is simple in Toronto and even the team's biggest strength comes with plenty of tough questions.

Monday, June 16, 2014

Leafs Off-Season Game Plan: Forwards


The Maple Leafs problem isn't scoring goals, it's keeping them out. But after being a top-10 team in goals scored from 2011-2013, the Leafs were middle of the pack last season suggesting defence isn't the only area in need of an upgrade.

The Leafs rely heavily on Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk and many nights live and die with their power play because apart from those two first liners they have trouble generating chances at even strength. A total revamp of the defence is the first priority this off-season but so too is creating a more balanced attack up front. Thankfully, the forwards need more of a tweak than a gut job.

Saturday, June 14, 2014

Leafs Off-Season Game Plan: Defence


Despite great goaltending, the Leafs allowed the fifth most goals in the league last season. Sadly, that isn't surprising. The Leafs haven't been better than 18th in goals allowed since the start of Lockout I.

Finally, they have some goaltending, so the bulk of the work will come in revamping the defence (and hopefully firing Randy Carlyle). It won't be easy, but there are plenty of options out there, many of which don't include trading Jake Gardiner.

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

What We Learned from the Conference Finals

We're only a few weeks away from crowning this year's Stanley Cup champion and we have learned so much on this journey. 

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