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Thursday, April 29, 2010

2010 Playoffs: Ranking First Round Predictions

The first round is over and there are no doubt plenty of pundits weighing in on the second round, giving expert analysis on who is likely to advance and why (I will be one of these fools later today). But can you really trust these people? How did their predictions fare in the first round?

I think every time someone gives their predictions they should be forced to show their all-time record, or at the very least their record that season. So in honour of full disclosure I’m showing how my predictions fared in the first round. To make myself feel smart I’m comparing them to so-called hockey experts.

It’s hard to be overly excited about the success of my predictions considering there was very little difference between pundit choices. Everyone picked the Capitals, Penguins, Sharks, and Hawks to advance. Even the Montreal newspapers were picking the Capitals to walk away with the series. I checked both the Gazette (Montreal’s English newspaper) and La Presse (one of the city’s French papers) and only one writer had the guts to pick the Canadiens – Ronald King. I don’t know anything about him; maybe he has a history of mental illness.

Well, I guess he’s smarter than all of us because thanks to Boston and Montreal he went 7-1 with his predictions.

The series that had some difference of opinion (Devils-Flyers, Sabres-Bruins, Canucks-Kings, Wings-Coyotes) were still predominantly favouring the higher seed (except in the Wings series, but most people still picked them despite being the lower seed). There were only a few deviations from the norm here and there. For the most part everyone’s predictions looked very similar and the standings below reflect this. No one did terribly and no one was perfect (from what I could find).

That being said, my predictions put me in a tie for second place. PLAYOFFS! And for the record, I didn’t just search out the various predictions that would make me look good! In fact, I actively searched out someone who picked the Canadiens. This list is a pretty wide sampling of hockey writers from various media.

Here’s how everyone fared in the first round, including myself.



Name Affiliation Record Wrong Picks
Ronald King La Presse 7-1 Devils
Matt Horner Five Minutes For Fighting 6-2 Caps, Sabres
Paul Hunter/Kevin McGran Toronto Star 6-2 Caps, Sabres
Pierre LeBrun ESPN/CBC 5-3 Caps, Devils, Sabres
Barry Melrose ESPN/Mullet 5-3 Caps, Devils, Sabres
Matthew Barnaby ESPN 5-3 Caps, Devils, Sabres
John Buccigross ESPN 5-3 Caps, Sabres, Kings
Scott Burnside ESPN 5-3 Caps, Sabres, Kings
Bob McKenzie TSN 5-3 Caps, Sabres, Kings
Eklund Hockeybuzz.com 5-3 Caps, Sabres, Coyotes
Puck Daddy Yahoo 5-3 Caps, Devils, Sabres
Adam Proteau The Hockey News 5-3 Caps, Sabres, Kings
Michael Farber Sports Illustrated 5-3 Caps, Sabres, Kings
Chris Stevenson Toronto Sun 5-3 Caps, Devils, Coyotes
Ken Warren Montreal Gazette 5-3 Caps, Devils, Sabres
David Shoalts/Eric Duhatschek Globe and Mail 4-4 Caps, Devils, Sabres, Coyotes

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

lawl at Barry Melrose's 2nd affiliation [Mullet].

Top drawer, sir. Top. Drawer.

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